Congo's Kabila courts regional support as opposition prepares 'red card'
25/10/2016
When Democratic Republic of Congo's eastern neighbors took
advantage of an outbreak of political turmoil there to invade in 1998,
President Laurent Kabila turned to regional powerhouse Angola for help.
Angola's jets pounded Rwandan and Ugandan
positions inside Congo and its troops patrolled the streets of the capital,
Kinshasa, fearing the installation of a hostile government sympathetic to its
own separatists.
This week, Laurent Kabila's son, Joseph, another Congolese
president facing upheaval at home, heads to Luanda in search of a helping hand.
Heads of state at Wednesday's Congo-focused regional summit,
many of whom have extended their own mandates at home, are likely to back a
deal Kabila recently struck with part of the opposition to allow him to stay in
power until at least April 2018, beyond his mandate which ends in December.
But analysts say this time Kabila cannot count on unalloyed
support from Angola and other allies, especially if its leaders start to see
Kabila as the problem, rather than the solution to difficulties in the central
African giant.
"Angola prefers a Congo that is weak but stable," said
Jason Stearns, director of the Congo Research Group at New York University.
"If the country becomes seriously unstable, Angola might
begin to make its criticism of Kabila more public."
The main opposition bloc has denounced this month's accord as a
pretext to allow Kabila to cling to power and maneuver to change the
constitution – charges the government denies.
More than 50 people were killed last month in demonstrations
against the extension of Kabila's term - which the government blames on the
logistical problems of organizing a November election - and opposition leaders
have vowed to give him a "red card" on Dec. 19, the last day of his
term.
The goal of Kabila's trip to Luanda is to win support for the
deal, under which a power-sharing government is to be named, his top diplomatic
adviser, Barnabe Kikaya bin Karubi, said.
The government hopes regional recognition of the accord can help
stem growing pressure from the United States and Europe on Kabila to stand
down.
Even with that vote
of confidence, further turmoil would damage Kabila's image as a guarantor of
stability, one diplomat said. The United Nations fears large-scale violence
could become "all but inevitable".
With direct Rwandan or Ugandan
intervention in Congo now considered unlikely, Angola's main fear is an influx
of refugees across its 2,600-km (1,600 mile) border if the political situation
gets out of hand.
"I don't think they will want to see
one person stay on if that leads to instability," the diplomat said of
Angola.
ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS
Millions died in the 1998-2003 war that
sucked in more than a half-dozen armies, including Zimbabwe and Namibia, which
backed Laurent Kabila and then Joseph after his father's murder in 2001.
Since then, a series of foreign-backed
insurrections has caused havoc in the east but without threatening Kabila's
overall authority.
Kikaya said Kinshasa was not worried about
weakening support from its allies but recent visits to Rwanda, Uganda and
Tanzania suggest Kabila is working hard to shore up regional support.
"He still sees regional alliances as
essential in his strategy to extend his time in office - but also possibly to
secure personal guarantees in case he is forced out of power," said
Vincent Rouget, Congo analyst at Control Risks.
Economic factors could also complicate
Kabila's strategy. Relations between Congo and Angola have soured since 2013
due to a dispute over access to offshore oil concessions.
Likewise, South Africa could conclude that
Kabila is no longer the best bet to protect its substantial economic interests
in Congo.
Congo agreed in 2013 to sell more than half the power from its
future 4,800 megawatt Inga 3 hydroelectric dam to South Africa but development
has been sluggish and Congo is now almost certain to miss a 2020 deadline to
begin providing electricity.
NOT ABOUT DEMOCRACY
The United States has already imposed
targeted sanctions against members of Kabila's inner circle for allegedly
violating human rights and blocking elections and the European Union is
threatening to follow suit.
Such moves are unlikely to find support
among Kabila's neighbors, especially Rwanda and Congo Republic, whose leaders
recently pushed through changes to their constitutions to let them stand for
third terms.
Instead, realpolitik and the desire for
stability are almost certain to trump any idealism about democracy.
"African states don't want to set
precedents about interference in domestic affairs," said Stephanie
Wolters, an analyst at the Institute of Strategic Studies in Pretoria.
But the support of regional leaders will
not be guaranteed forever and if he has any designs on staying around beyond
April 2018, Kabila will need to find a much firmer legal basis for his
position, the diplomat said.
"They found a legal way to stay
on," the diplomat said. "Kabila hasn't."
By Aaron Ross; Editing by
Ed Cropley and Giles Elgood
Reuters
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