29/12/2016
A deal between President Joseph Kabila and the opposition hangs in the balance.
A deal between President Joseph Kabila and the opposition hangs in the balance.
DRC people pour into the streets chanting for President
Kabila to step down
One week after opposition parties and the
government agreed a deal that would allow President Joseph Kabila to stay in
power until 2017, all eyes are now on national dialogue talks brokered by the
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)'s powerful Catholic church.
The Conférence Episcopale Nationale du Congo
(CENCO) summit is due to begin on Thursday (29 December) and is aimed at
stemming the violence that followed Kabila's refusal to stand down
despite the expiry of his two-term limit as leader of the
resource- rich African nation.
Kabila and opposition parties agreed in principle to a deal before Christmas, but
will now discuss holding elections next year and setting up a transitional
government to last until his departure at the end of 2017.
Ahead of the talks, IBTimes UK looks
at five potential scenarios for the DRC.
- The dialogue drags on, sanctions have little impact and Kabila remains in power as protests die down and elections are delayed until 2018
The limited international spotlight on the
situation in DRC may further offset political instability, as it becomes clear
that US and EU sanctions on Kabila's top officials have had little impact.
Kabila could capitalise on a change in foreign policy under Donald Trump, who is
expected to cease US engagement in Congo while effectively empowering Africa's
strongmen.
A
moto drives past a sign asking for President Joseph
Kabila's resignation on an
avenue in Kinshasa on
19 December 2016, as tensions rose
as Kabila's last term
ended
Opposition
supporters show President Kabila 'the yellow card'
in the capital Kinshasa on
October 19, 2016 in a protest over
plans by the president to stay in power
beyond
the end of his term on 19 December
In spite of pledges by pro-democracy groups to carry on
demonstrating, mass protest will likely be short-lived. In combination with the violence and civilian deaths, political heavyweights
Moise Katumbi and Etienne Tshisekedi are calling for "peaceful
resistance", not demonstrations – and the Catholic Church is not
supporting protests either.
A
Congolese opposition party supporter displays a red card
against President
Joseph Kabila in Kinshasa, DRC
on 19 December 2016
The Church-led
negotiations are now focused on how long it is until the next election – and
how long Kabila stays in office, rather than whether or not he does.
"They (Kabila's
side) are already laying the groundwork for a reason why, in 2018, if the
constitution hasn't been changed, elections will be delayed further," Anderson
added.
Citing lack of funding and delays in voter
registration, the electoral commission postponed the polls. Earlier this month, the head of the
commission said the budget to hold the elections would be $1.8bn (£1.47bn)
– up 60% and two-fifths of the new government's budget –
leading commentators to suggest it could be an indicator that 2018 is the
earliest possible date for elections, should Kabila continue in office.
Residents
chant slogans against Joseph Kabila as
personnel from the UN's peacekeeping
force,
Monusco, patrol during demonstrations in the
streets of the capital,
Kinshasa,
on 20 December 2016
- Elections are delayed past 2018 and Kabila changes the constitution, rendering the current one an empty shell
It is very likely that Kabila will seek to change the constitution by arguing
that delays to the election mean the current one is no longer fit for purpose,
and that it did not foresee the current situation.
Residents
chant slogans against Congolese President
Joseph Kabila as peacekeepers serving
in the Monusco
patrol during demonstrations in the streets of the
DRC's capital
Kinshasa on 20 December 2016
Another possibility is that Kabila may use Article 78 of the constitution which stipulates that the
president appoints the prime minister from the ranks of the parliamentary
majority after consultation of the latter. It is constitutionally unclear how
the new prime minister – and opposition member – Samy Badibanga's position
works.
A
man is arrested by a member of the military police after
people attempted to
block the road with rocks, in the
neighbourhood of Majengo in Goma, eastern
DRC,
on 19 December 2016
"That may be
another fact that gets trotted out: that the transitional government is not
actually constitutional so Kabila could present the argument that the
constitution needs to be changed to enable this to be constitutional. This
could quietly allow him to push through changes to term limits," Anderson
said.
- Kabila refuses to step down and faces a mutiny by military/police, who are unpaid and frustrated as national budget decreases as economic growth slows
Since 2015, the Great Lakes region has witnessed DRC's neighbour Burundi slowly slide into violence following a military coup against President Pierre Nkurunziza who was running for a controversial third term, seen by many as unconstitutional. In May 2015, disgruntled and politically engaged army officers and officials staged a coup d'etat in the capital, Bujumbura, before dismissing Nkurunziza – although that coup was ultimately crushed.
An
FARDC soldier patrols on March 21, 2015 in an
abandoned part of the South Kivu
village of Mutarule
where in June 2014 unknown assailants stormed an
outdoor
mass opening fire with automatic weapons
and grenades
In DRC, the risk of forces turning against Kabila in a Burundi-style scenario peaked on 19 and 20 September when the poorly paid army was deployed in the streets during protests. "This deployment was a test of the army's happiness, and how far they were willing to go for Kabila to suppress large non-violent protests," Anderson said.
The risk of mutiny or a coup significantly decreased when Kabila passed his term deadline. It would also be unclear who a coup attempt would be in favour of, as the DRC does not have a particular loyalty for the opposition – unlike Burundi, where it spilt along political and ethnic lines.
Servicemen
of the FARDC were given new uniforms after
ADF rebels, who have been carring
out attacks in the
DRC's east have been seen using uniforms
of the FARDC
"The huge opposition to Kabila in Kinshasa is largely unarmed opposition, whereas the armed opposition is largely based in the east of the country – with a few exceptions – which means they don't have the ability to shape power in Kinshasa itself. Unlike in Burundi, where the opposition against the Nkurunziza was concentrated in Bujumbura," Anderson explained.
The
presence of South Sudanese fighters, and Rwandan
and Burundian rebels in the
north and eastern parts of
the country does not pose a risk to President
Joseph
Kabila
- In a return to the past, instability overflows and affects the region, with dozens of countries meddling and more armed groups passing through porous borders
Regarding contagion, it is important to look at the
position of the other regional countries. Unlike during the Second Congo War, during which nine countries were
fighting each other on Congolese soil, neighbours Rwanda and Uganda are
unlikely to get involved internally in the DRC at this point and support an insurgency against Kabila.
In early August,
Kabila travelled to both Rwanda and Uganda to meet Presidents Paul Kagame and
Yoweri Museveni, where he is believed to have told them of his plans for the
second half of 2016, and what his stay in power would mean for their countries'
relationships.
A
fighter from the FDLR rebel group, which is being hunted
by the Rwandan and
Congolese armies, moves through
the forest deep in the bush of eastern Congo
The DRC and Rwanda's relationship is mainly based
on the DRC's ongoing operation against the FDLR rebels – formed by Rwandan Hutus linked to the 1994
Rwandan genocide. Rwanda is appreciative of the Congolese forces' capture and handover of FDLR commanders and fighters in
North and South Kivu.
In Uganda, Museveni
is seen as being solely focused on his own country, having himself been
re-elected and having plans to develop oil in the northwest of the country on
the border with the DRC. "So Museveni, who has a certain amount of
security cooperation with the DRC, doesn't want to see instability in the
region," Anderson said.
A larger population of South Sudanese in DRC could
lay the grounds for a new refugee community-based militant group after fighters
loyal to their ousted vice-president, Riek Machar, crossed into DRC in August
following a resurgence of violence in South Sudan.
United
Nations peace-keepers record details of weapons
recovered from FDLR militants
after their surrender
in Kateku in the eastern region of the Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC), 30 May 2014
"This a fear we
have seen displayed by the population in North Kivu – that the South Sudanese
refugees will form a militant group along the lines that the refugee Rwandan
Hutus did with the FDLR," Anderson explained.
The DRC government is currently trying to split
South Sudanese refugees into two groups – most of the refugees are concentrated
in refugee camps in Ituri province close to the border with South Sudan. A
second group – several hundred militants loyal to Machar – are held in Goma, North Kivu.
The few hundred
militants, who do not appear to have any support among the community, are not a
threat, but that could change if they form their own self-defence group and
start retaliatory attacks together with those in the camps. This, though, would
not pose a threat to the Kinshasa government.
DRC
opposition supporters gather in Kinshasa on 15
September 2015 after violent
clashes broke out when
a rally was attacked by youths hurling stones,
sparking
a lynching attempt and a police
crackdown
- Kabila signs a political accord with the opposition, agreeing to reinforce the principle of a two-term limit and standing down as the transitional government led by Samy Badibanga stays in place, paving the way for 2017 elections
The most unlikely scenario now that the 19 December
deadline is receding into history. Kabila's choice of prime minister, who is not a strong
political figure, suggests he has no intention of stepping down. Badibanga is
not seen as someone who would last long as prime minister, or have the ability
to keep the government together and, by extension, help protect Kabila's
interests were he to leave.
Congolese
opposition leader Vital Kamerhe (C) leaves on
February 23, 2015 the Supreme
Court of Justice
in Kinshasa
In the event that Kabila steps down, Anderson
expects party leader Vital Kamerhe to get a "significant
role" in the transitional government, while dropping "trumped-up" charges against opposition heavyweight Katumbi would
also be a step towards reconciliation and transition.
Clockwise
from top left: Opposition heavyweights Olivier
Kamitatu, Martin Fayulu,
Jean-Bernard Ewanga and
Etienne Tshisekedi formed Le Rassemblement -
the DRC's
largest opposition coalition
in June 2016
Were Katumbi to be
given a position in the government, "mentor" Tshisekedi would also
have to be involved, due to his popularity.
"The government
would not have a huge amount of legitimacy in its own right, but leaders would
call for the elections which would have to be organised in the latter half of
2017, for logistical reasons," Anderson explained.
This is likely to
lead to a period of instability next year, with a risk of violence and civilian
deaths, since many politicians' support works along ethnic lines.
This will not be an
indication of a general rise against the government, but low-level violence by
these armed groups may continue in the Kivus and eastern parts of the country
both before and after the elections.
"Around
election time, people tend to get very worried that their candidate will lose
out against another ethnic group's candidate and take something away from them.
As a consequence, militias form in communities and groups tend to receive a
great amount of support from those populations, meaning more people are willing
to join them, because people are afraid.
"They look at
someone who can protect them, whether their candidate wins or loses, and look
at someone who can ensure that their candidate wins by legal and illegal
means," Anderson added.By Elsa Buchanan
IB Times UK
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