01/09/2015
At present time, it is obviously difficult -in DR Congo- for a leader to stay longer in power like the former president Mobutu stayed. « We have opened our eyes« said people in the capital city Kinshasa. After the fall of Mobutu’s dictatorship in 1997, Congolese people’s political behaviour has changed a lot and his diaspora has great influence to keep people inside the country on pressure.
Kabila is unpopular both outside and inside Congo. Large part of Congo challenges him and sees as an outsider because of his Rwandese background. it’s Therefore very difficult for him to stay longer in power even if seeking for a third-term. If he decides to cling on power past 2016 by force. Three scenarios would occur such as:
1. « BURUNDI’S SCENARIO IN CONGO »
If Joseph Kabila decides to be a « second Nkurunziza »; he will turn his country to an obvious military and bloody dictatorship because he should use force to govern the country. Therefore , staying in power by force and killing Congoleses will destroy the country image abroad. The international community will sanction his regime. Kabila’s third- term will be difficult such as Nkurunziza in Burundi.
That is why we call Kabila in this scenario « the Congolese Nkurunziza » in which he will force everything to stay after 2016 and call opponents for dialogue like in 2011 against Tshisekedi , the opposition leader. this scenario will show the United Nations failure in Congo to bring democracy and political stability. Kabila as Congolese Nkurunziza means failure of the international community in Congo.
2. »SCENARIO OF CIVIL WAR IN CONGO LIKE IN 1998″
He will set fire in DR Congo because nobody will accept him as legitimate president after 2016. His third mandate will bring back the scenario of 1998 civil war in which many rebellions and militias challenged Laurent Desire Kabila. Joseph Kabila’s third mandate will never bring peace and stability. Instead DR Congo will face another long civil war. There will be many dissidents both inside and outside of Kabila’s regime taking arms against him or we can expect a scenario like the revival of old armed rebellions like M23 fighting against the government.
3. « RISK OF SECESSION OR SPLIT OF CONGO » AFTER 2016″
There will be a great risk of secession or split of Congo after 2016. Kabila will bring back the 1960 independence secession scenario. Katanga’s leaders such as Moise Katumbi and Kwungu « do not want Kabila to play this third penalty again » . They could seek to rebuild the former Republic of Katanga like Moise Tshombe has done in order to challenge Lumumba power in Kinshasa in 1960. Furthermore Katanga’s leaders could choose secession as alternative .
And others regions like Kasai , Kivu or Kongo central will do the same and seek self governance in order to reject Kabila’s dictatorship in Kinshasa. Theorically, DRCONGO has past from 11 to 26 provinces since 30 June 2015 and this new repartition is totally uncertain and unpopular. Therefore , Kabila’s third term will put the future of the country at risk of Balkanization.
SOLUTIONS
First of all , the Kabila’s eviction will not sort out the problems in DR Congo as well as his third mandate will not save the country stability and prosperity. We need to choose the lesser evil :
A. The international Community has spend a lot of money for peace and democracy in Congo since 1998. If Kabila stay in power after 2016, that means the international Community fail in Congo;
B. Therefore 2016 must be the only occasion for the Congolese people to taste democracy and they can not miss the chance. Also 2016 must be the first peaceful and democratic transfer of power in the history of the country;
C. We call for a Nigerian presidential scenario (BUHARI and GOODLUCK JONATHAN) in Congo. A democratic and peaceful alternation with international community support in order to save peace and stability.
CONCLUSION
The Great Lakes region has suffered a lot from war, massacres and genocides with millions of victims. We call for change and new images in the region which is going to be possible by democratic alternation with new generation of leaders. Kagame, Kabila, Museveni belong all to the old generation of warlords in charge in the region and they are responsible for the Great Lake’s tragedy .That is why we call for changes without negotiations, transitions or dialogues .
BY SERGE EGOLA ANGBAKODOLO
WITH THE COLLABORATION OF ISHIABA KASONGA
ORION CONGO STUDIES NETWORK (O.C.S.N)
Joseph kabila
Kabila is unpopular both outside and inside Congo. Large part of Congo challenges him and sees as an outsider because of his Rwandese background. it’s Therefore very difficult for him to stay longer in power even if seeking for a third-term. If he decides to cling on power past 2016 by force. Three scenarios would occur such as:
1. « BURUNDI’S SCENARIO IN CONGO »
If Joseph Kabila decides to be a « second Nkurunziza »; he will turn his country to an obvious military and bloody dictatorship because he should use force to govern the country. Therefore , staying in power by force and killing Congoleses will destroy the country image abroad. The international community will sanction his regime. Kabila’s third- term will be difficult such as Nkurunziza in Burundi.
That is why we call Kabila in this scenario « the Congolese Nkurunziza » in which he will force everything to stay after 2016 and call opponents for dialogue like in 2011 against Tshisekedi , the opposition leader. this scenario will show the United Nations failure in Congo to bring democracy and political stability. Kabila as Congolese Nkurunziza means failure of the international community in Congo.
2. »SCENARIO OF CIVIL WAR IN CONGO LIKE IN 1998″
He will set fire in DR Congo because nobody will accept him as legitimate president after 2016. His third mandate will bring back the scenario of 1998 civil war in which many rebellions and militias challenged Laurent Desire Kabila. Joseph Kabila’s third mandate will never bring peace and stability. Instead DR Congo will face another long civil war. There will be many dissidents both inside and outside of Kabila’s regime taking arms against him or we can expect a scenario like the revival of old armed rebellions like M23 fighting against the government.
3. « RISK OF SECESSION OR SPLIT OF CONGO » AFTER 2016″
There will be a great risk of secession or split of Congo after 2016. Kabila will bring back the 1960 independence secession scenario. Katanga’s leaders such as Moise Katumbi and Kwungu « do not want Kabila to play this third penalty again » . They could seek to rebuild the former Republic of Katanga like Moise Tshombe has done in order to challenge Lumumba power in Kinshasa in 1960. Furthermore Katanga’s leaders could choose secession as alternative .
And others regions like Kasai , Kivu or Kongo central will do the same and seek self governance in order to reject Kabila’s dictatorship in Kinshasa. Theorically, DRCONGO has past from 11 to 26 provinces since 30 June 2015 and this new repartition is totally uncertain and unpopular. Therefore , Kabila’s third term will put the future of the country at risk of Balkanization.
SOLUTIONS
First of all , the Kabila’s eviction will not sort out the problems in DR Congo as well as his third mandate will not save the country stability and prosperity. We need to choose the lesser evil :
A. The international Community has spend a lot of money for peace and democracy in Congo since 1998. If Kabila stay in power after 2016, that means the international Community fail in Congo;
B. Therefore 2016 must be the only occasion for the Congolese people to taste democracy and they can not miss the chance. Also 2016 must be the first peaceful and democratic transfer of power in the history of the country;
C. We call for a Nigerian presidential scenario (BUHARI and GOODLUCK JONATHAN) in Congo. A democratic and peaceful alternation with international community support in order to save peace and stability.
CONCLUSION
The Great Lakes region has suffered a lot from war, massacres and genocides with millions of victims. We call for change and new images in the region which is going to be possible by democratic alternation with new generation of leaders. Kagame, Kabila, Museveni belong all to the old generation of warlords in charge in the region and they are responsible for the Great Lake’s tragedy .That is why we call for changes without negotiations, transitions or dialogues .
BY SERGE EGOLA ANGBAKODOLO
WITH THE COLLABORATION OF ISHIABA KASONGA
ORION CONGO STUDIES NETWORK (O.C.S.N)
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